Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 105656.890839 111287.628732 116910.449338 122943.028100 129228.226565 135579.874837 142480.058654
2025-10-12 97574.370212 106275.328549 115197.617182 125019.679260 135517.354588 146389.592846 158489.569107
2025-10-19 91164.868145 101963.635458 113270.871256 125970.700717 139813.881174 154422.443129 170980.797310
2025-10-26 85694.283097 98018.165135 111151.136703 126150.646235 142769.087830 160578.605154 181068.475336
2025-11-02 81421.009111 94978.223070 109648.860471 126649.587997 145751.296143 166493.574586 190662.107599
2025-11-09 77449.377912 91977.237833 107918.769021 126635.835783 147932.246529 171331.081020 198903.410392
2025-11-16 74760.036041 90232.355834 107424.769349 127848.932350 151349.813878 177441.296043 208493.399990
2025-11-23 71566.984494 87727.503622 105901.121584 127733.014046 153121.335736 181585.988725 215778.990035
2025-11-30 69761.498216 86725.341992 106010.357088 129411.183707 156883.800479 187956.009966 225591.261373
2025-12-07 67790.144201 85421.476722 105674.785794 130487.253041 159881.377661 193403.406398 234323.893168
2025-12-14 65400.781989 83512.729552 104531.248171 130523.229185 161586.159759 197296.695576 241218.142432
2025-12-21 63402.250548 81990.222907 103770.763914 130944.267716 163688.683800 201616.593362 248594.738602
2025-12-28 62395.741555 81656.272910 104431.238665 133081.907289 167873.843466 208456.684423 259052.723919
2026-01-04 61217.518009 81062.169066 104739.023617 134767.390964 171508.447080 214658.267391 268797.096504
2026-01-11 59717.366550 80007.840886 104433.201906 135661.322822 174155.895901 219669.667963 277131.128218
2026-01-18 57948.983928 78552.827440 103576.586997 135826.637557 175874.971689 223540.530468 284088.402474
2026-01-25 56456.980803 77395.674709 103043.395827 136350.977868 178003.679486 227891.354586 291630.332870
2026-02-01 54792.363963 75962.299746 102114.158895 136335.106694 179428.304629 231362.620741 298096.423908
2026-02-08 53818.932480 75387.716462 102240.530400 137623.448147 182463.015462 236807.890049 307001.826858
2026-02-15 52258.284746 73997.989703 101284.704213 137500.257187 183697.925031 240017.111273 313151.535699
2026-02-22 51617.083388 73794.766248 101832.380484 139282.688415 187332.750371 246211.469073 323028.748435
2026-03-01 50731.547316 73237.060008 101896.994017 140425.485769 190147.340752 251388.868854 331664.374856
2026-03-08 49417.737268 72067.673206 101131.058701 140463.690488 191530.072743 254762.809487 338050.017600